PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

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For immediate release April 2, 2014                                       4 pp.

 

Contacts:

Peter J. Woolley  973.670.3290

Bruce Peabody 617-869-4885

Krista Jenkins  908.328.8967

 

Voters Disagree with High Court:

Limits on Money Don’t Restrict Free Speech

 

American voters by a wide margin disagree with today’s ruling by the Supreme Court and say that Congress can limit how much an individual gives to a political group. In the most recent national poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, three-fifths (58%) of voters say Congress can limit donations to a political group so “other people’s free speech is not overwhelmed by some peoples’ money.”  Just a third (35%) say limiting contributions is limiting speech--in violation of the Constitution.

“Every politician knows money is the mother’s milk of a campaign,” said Bruce Peabody, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “But our results show that most voters do not equate free speech with the free flow of money,” Peabody continued. “The Court is stepping out on its own in saying that giving campaign cash is an important constitutional right on par with being able to speak out about political matters.”

Democrats by wide margin of (65-28) say Congress can limit such contributions, and independent voters by similar 2-to-1 margin agree. Republicans split on the question (49-44), slightly in favor of allowing Congress to limit contributions.

The case of McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission was argued before the U.S. Supreme Court in October. Shaun McCutcheon, a big Republican contributor, contended that the FEC rules about how much he can donate in a two-year period to parties and campaigns (set at $123,000) is too low. A written decision was released today which struck down the limit.

The university-based research center at FDU conducted the national poll as part of its Project on Popular Constitutionalism, designed to tap voter attitudes about the Constitution and its competing values. The Project focused on three prominent cases considered by the highest court this year: Michigan v. Bay Mills Indian Community, Town of Greece v. Galloway and McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission. Fairleigh Dickinson University’s national poll of 883 registered voters aged 18 and older was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from December 9 through December 15, 2013, and has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at 201.692.2846                                                                            For more information, please call 201.692.7032

 

 

Methodology

This national survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from December 9 through December 15, 2013 using a randomly selected sample of 883 registered voters. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

Tables

There is a case about how much money people can give, not to candidates, but to other political organizations. Have you heard about this case, or not?

 

 

Party

Gender

Race

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Wom

White

Non

white

18-

29

30-

44

45-

59

60+

Have heard

36%

38

31

37

42

31

37

34

31

33

41

40

Have not heard

62%

60

67

62

57

68

61

65

69

65

58

59

DK/Ref (vol)

1%

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

-

2

1

1

 

Some say…[rotate]…Congress cannot limit how much money you give to a political group because such a limit is a limit on your free speech. Others say Congress has to limit how much money you can give to a political group so other peoples’ free speech is not overwhelmed by some peoples’ money. Which comes closer to your view?

 

 

Party

Gender

Race

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Wom

White

Non

white

18-

29

30-

44

45-

59

60+

Congress can NOT limit contributions

35%

28

32

44

35

34

33

39

38

32

36

35

Congress CAN limit contributions

58%

65

60

49

58

58

59

54

53

62

58

56

DK/Ref (vol)

8%

7

8

6

7

8

8

7

9

6

6

9

 

 

Exact Question Wording and Order for U.S. Supreme Court Series

 

USSC 1A One case is about allowing Indian Tribes to buy land to build casinos. Have you heard about this case or not?

 

1          Have heard

2          Have not heard

8          DK/Refused (vol)


USSC 1B. Some say....ROTATE... since Indian Tribes are nations and have the right to run casinos on their own land, they can also buy new land and have the same right. Others say...ROTATE... Indian Tribes are nations and have the right to run casinos on their own land, but they can't buy new land and claim the same rights. Which comes closer to your view?


1          Can buy new land and claim the same rights

2          Cannot buy land and claim the same rights

8          DK/Refused (vol)


USSC2A. There is a case about how much money people can give, not to candidates, but to other political organizations. Have you heard about this case, or not?

 

1          Have heard

2          Have not heard

8          DK/Refused (vol)


USSC2B. Some people say... ROTATE... Congress cannot limit how much money you give to a political group because such a limit is a limit on your free speech. Others say... Congress has to limit how much money you can give to a political group so other people’s free speech is not overwhelmed by some people’s money. Which comes closer to your view?
1          Congress cannot limit contributions

2          Congress CAN limit contributions

8          DK/Refused (vol)


USSC3A. There is one case about praying in town councils and other meetings with public officials. Have you heard about this case, or not?

 

1          Have heard

2          Have not heard

8          DK/Refused (vol)


USSC3B. Some say... ROTATE... public meetings shouldn't have any prayers at all because prayers by definition suggest one belief or another. Others say.... prayer at public meetings is fine as long as the public officials are not favoring some beliefs over others. Which comes closer to your view.

 

1          Prayer shouldn’t be allowed

2          Prayer can be allowed

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

Sample characteristics

 

Gender

Male

49

Female

51

 

 

Age

18-34

26

35-54

36

55+

36

Refused

 1

 

 

Race/Ethnicity

White

72

Black/African-American

11

Latino or Hispanic

11

Asian

2

Other/refused

4

 

 

 

Party identification

Democrat/Lean Democrat

43

Independent/DK/refused

19

Republican/Lean Republican

35

 

 

 

 

First, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? [Randomize approve/disapprove]

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Age

Education

 

All

Dem

Ind

Repub

Male

Female

White

Non-white

18-34

35-59

60+

College

Non-college

Approve

44%

73

32

10

44

45

35

65

51

46

38

45

43

Disapprove

42%

13

49

82

44

39

51

20

30

41

51

42

42

Neither (vol)

13%

13

18

9

12

15

12

15

18

13

10

12

14

DK/Ref (vol)

1%

1

2

0

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

0

1

 

 

In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Age

Education

 

All

Dem

Ind

Repub

Male

Female

White

Non-white

18-34

35-59

60+

College

Non-college

Right direction

33%

56

21

7

35

31

27

45

45

30

28

35

31

Disapprove

54%

28

62

88

55

53

62

35

47

54

58

54

54

Neither (vol)

13%

15

17

4

10

16

10

20

8

15

13

11

14

DK/Ref (vol)

1%

1

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

1

1

1

0

 

 

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1.    First, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK/Unsure/mixed [DON’T READ]

9          Refused [DON’T READ]

 

US2.    In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK/Unsure [DON’T READ]

9          Refused. [DON’T READ]

 

NJ1 through NJ11 released March 11, 2014

POT1 through POT2 withheld for future release

TAX1 through TAX3 released March 17, 2014

WEA1 through WEA4 released March 13, 2014

 

ID1. Now I’m going ask about some people. If you haven’t heard of one of them, just say so. Have you heard of … [ROTATE LIST]?  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of… [MATCH ROTATION]? Would that be very or somewhat?

ID1      Chris Christie

ID2      Barack Obama

ID3 and ID4 withheld for future release

ID5      Bruce Springsteen

ID6      Ted Nugent

 

ID1-6    Have you heard of [INSERT]?

1          Yes

2          No (Skip to next name)

 

ID1-6a             Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT]?

1          Favorable

2          Unfavorable

8          Don’t Know (vol) (skip to next name)

 

Weighted sample characteristics

 

 

 

Registered voters

N = 703; MoE = +/- 3.7

Gender

Male

49%

 

Female

51%

Age

18-34

22%

 

35-59

45%

 

60+

30%

 

Refused

3%

Race

White

67%

 

African American

12%

 

Hispanic

13%

 

Asian

4%

 

Other/Refused

4%

Union household

Self

14%

 

Someone else

11%

 

No

75%

Party (with leaners)

Dem

45%

 

Ind/DK/Refused

25%

 

Repub

30%

 

 

 

Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is perfect. New Jersey needs to raise the tax on water consumption in order to ensure adequate funds are available for open space preservation OR Regardless of the need, no new taxes should be imposed.

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Union household

Christie approval

 

All

 

Dem

Ind

Repub

Male

Female

White

Non-white

Yes

No

Favor-able

Un-favorable

Should raise the tax

21%

32

13

13

22

21

23

19

24

21

20

25

Should NOT raise the tax

71%

60

77

82

71

71

69

74

70

72

73

69

DK/Ref (vol)

7%

7

11

5

6

8

8

7

6

7

7

6

 

Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is perfect. New Jersey needs to raise the tax rate on income earners making in excess of a million dollars annually in order to make the tax code more equitable OR A tax increase on top income earners is unwarranted.

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Union household

Christie approval

 

All

Dem

Ind

Repub

Male

Female

White

Non-white

Yes

No

Favor-able

Un-favorable

Should raise tax

63%

78

57

47

62

65

58

76

71

62

54

76

Should NOT raise the tax

31%

17

37

48

33

29

36

18

26

32

41

19

DK/Ref (vol)

6%

6

6

5

6

6

5

6

3

6

6

5

 

 

 

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 withheld for future release

NJ1 through NJ11 released March 11, 2014

POT1 through POT2 withheld for future release

 

[ROTATE TAX SERIES]

TAX1    Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is perfect: New Jersey needs to raise the gasoline tax because all of the current money is committed and without new revenue there cannot be any new road or bridge projects OR Regardless of the need, no new taxes should be imposed.

1          Should raise the tax

2          Should NOT raise the tax

8          DK/Both

 

TAX2    Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is perfect. New Jersey needs to raise the tax on water consumption in order to ensure adequate funds are available for open space preservation OR Regardless of the need, no new taxes should be imposed.

1          Should raise the tax

2          Should NOT raise the tax

8          DK/Both

 

TAX3    Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is perfect. New Jersey needs to reinstate raise the tax rate on income earners making in excess of a million dollars annually in order to make the tax code more equitable OR A tax increase on top income earners is unwarranted.

1          Should reinstate the tax

2          Should NOT reinstate the tax

8          DK/Both

 

 

Weighted sample characteristics

 

 

Registered voters

N = 703; MoE = +/- 3.7

Gender

Male

49%

 

Female

51%

Age

18-34

22%

 

35-59

45%

 

60+

30%

 

Refused

3%

Race

White

67%

 

African American

12%

 

Hispanic

13%

 

Asian

4%

 

Other/Refused

4%

Union household

Self

14%

 

Someone else

8%

 

No

75%

Party (with leaners)

Dem

45%

 

Ind/DK/Refused

25%

 

Repub

30%